Dear, please have a look at this article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/f... It matches with my own number crunching efforts and the less-than-exponential growth we see today in Wuhan as a result of the drastic measures they undertook there. This is a glimpse of hope. This evolution will be in vain and exponential growth will resume if similar 'extreme' measures will not be applied in other affected areas across the world. Let's take an example to the discipline and carefulness of the Chinese people to not infect others. I quote: "draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements". Please contact your health and political representatives to take action sooner than later; as these will have exponential effects. It does take political courage to take hard and early measures; but it is necessary. The alternative strategy in the past - and educated to epidemiologists - has been to prevent mass panic by minimising the effects and spreads of a disease. But, as this disease spreads this fast, this strategy will be quickly obsoleted by,... mass panic. Ensuring the public can keep their trust in their elected officials who are supposed to protect them, is the best option. We have time now to prepare and act. I invite attendees to the international gathering at Fosdem to perform afterwards - as much as practically possible - a self imposed 2 week 'holiday at home' quarantine regime and the other safety measures as implemented in Wuhan, to limit possible transmissions. Thank you for considering this and preparing for what looks like drastic actions - my own numbers indicate the spread of this virus in Europe might only lag 3 weeks behind the spread in Wuhan - with a high variability (meaning a high impact of possible countermeasures). Chorine water (a Javel solution) can properly destroy this (and other) virus and can be used to to disinfect door handles and other often touched surfaces. Yet be careful for your eyes and skin with this. “BLEACH SOLUTION A simple and inexpensive way to keep your sick room clean is with a solution of bleach. Ordinary household bleach can be prepared in a strong (1:10) solution and a weaker (1:100) solution. The strong version is for disinfecting patient waste and for disinfecting spills of blood, mucus, or other bodily fluids. The weaker version is useful for disinfecting surfaces, bedding, medical equipment, and reusable protective clothing (which shall then be washed). It can also disinfect aprons, boots, and items to be thrown away. Yes, items you discard must be disinfected. To prepare a bleach solution, you’ll need: • A mixing container that can hold ten “measures.” For example, a ten-cup container. • Containers to hold the solutions (consider labels or separate colors for the 1:10 and 1:100 solutions). • Chlorine bleach • Clean water • A measuring cup or similar item Now, mark the mixing container at the 90 percent level. This will tell you the proper proportions for your mix. Then, pour water to the 90 percent level and add the rest with your bleach. You have just made your 1:10 solution. To make your 1:100 bleach solution, pour water to the 90[…]” Excerpt From: Joseph Alton. “The Ebola Survival Handbook: An MD Tells You What You Need to Know Now to Stay Safe”. Suggestion: I filled a flower spray with a weaker solution to be practical to disinfect received packages, door handles and other contact surfaces. On Fri, Jan 31, 2020 at 12:40 AM Daniel Pocock <daniel@pocock.pro> wrote:
On 31/01/2020 00:12, Jasper Nuyens wrote:
I agree with your analysis, except from your remark about the mortality rate. There is no indication (except from hearsay) that this is anything less than the 9.5% of SARS; on the contrary. The exact mortality rate is in this stage unclear, but it seems to be more than 11%: 11% of the early 99 patients died, but only 31% is - as of today - discharged; 58% still remain in the hospital, so the casualties amongst this group could still increase the percentage. These numbers also depends on access to decently equipped Intensive Care Units (ICU) - which is very problematic with the number of
That is an excellent point and it came up indirectly in the WHO press conference
They explained that the main reason for a state of emergency is not because of China (who can build new hospitals in just 10 days) but because of their fear that other countries with less resources (less ICUs) will struggle.
WHO also commented that China has committed to send resources to those countries. I feel that is very commendable from the Chinese but it will also be important to observe how well it works in practice, for example, in countries where the Chinese experts don't speak local languages or where local health practitioners have never worked with China before.
To compare it to the larger free software organizations, people might die while bureaucrats have bun fights.
already confirmed cases: now at 8163 in China, with an additional 12167 identified probable cases; more than 20.000 people. Add to that that the number of cases have doubled every 2 days till today - and that they can remain undetected for 10 days. A grim outlook. https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia
The incubation period, where infected people display no symptoms, is particularly scary for me too
A report today said that the rigorous screening at airports can only detect 33% of people with infection. The other 66% pass that screening and share the infection later.
An Australian airline has just confirmed transmission between passengers on a domestic flight and they are now trying to track down the other 170 passengers for quarantine.
About 75% of these people will get a double pneumonia and more than 10% will need mechanical ventilation for survival. Because of these enormous amount of infected people, the organisational constraints can make the mortality go up instead of down, some doctors believe it might become 30%. But it's hard to tell at this stage, there are also reasons why the mortality can go down (see next). The most comprehensive clinical study to date can be found here (The Lancet publishes updated versions regularly): https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/f...
On a positive note, China is experimenting with a lot of different approved drugs which might be affective against this disease - this has the potential to reduce the mortality rate and is a sparkle of hope. Hopefully, we get lucky and will this lead to an optimised way to deal with infected people with a lesser need of ICU dependency. https://innophore.com/2019-ncov/
As the WHO emphasized tonight, the Chinese are taking it very seriously
Even if they don't find the solution in China, the fact that Chinese cabinet ministers are on the ground in Wuhen (according to the WHO) shows they are committed to the issue.
If this happened in the US, do you think the US president would visit ground zero or would he seek refuge at one of his golf courses? He might toss a coin to decide whether to blame Iran or Mexico for the problem.
What would the people in Wuhan say if asked if there should have been quick and more drastic countermeasures? I believe we are getting in that situation now (but maybe it will take another week or even two to get into that situation).
With respect to FOSDEM, we all know how crowded it can be. I do believe the individual risk of infection this weekend is still very low. But there needs to be only one person who picked it up, passing through Brussels Airport or from another international hub.
Personally, I just prefer to be too cautious instead of otherwise,
To be completely transparent, there are other factors in my life right now that might prevent me attending FOSDEM. Coronavirus is an uncertain risk that I am evaluating daily but the other factors are also evolving on a daily basis.
I regard the WHO advice as useful but also political. Watching the press conference, I felt there was a bit of politics there. Their support for China was constructive.
I also felt some bias: they suggest trade should not stop without facts.
There is a niggling feeling I have: should that be inverted, should trade /not/ continue until we have facts?
FOSDEM organizers have the last word of course.
FOSDEM organizers could also take measures to reduce crowding, for example, cancelling all the booths and putting people on the external doors to control crowd levels in the buildings. Moving main track and keynote speakers out of the Novotel and spreading them around different hotels could also be a good N+1 strategy.
Regards,
Daniel
-- Jasper Nuyens Managing Director, Linux Belgium http://www.linuxbe.com Phone: +32 (0)2 747 47 01 Fax: +32 (0)2 747 47 10 GSM: +32 (0)478 978967