[FOSDEM] Coronavirus

[Jasper Nuyens]

Dear,

Sadly, not all of your questions can be answered fully scientifically
yet. I guess it's a risk assessment.

As an added fact in Belgium, the normal seasonal flu will reach
epidemic proportions in a week or 2.
The initial symptoms of the novel coronavirus pneumonia are similar,
it will make differentiation by health workers more difficult.
Travel from China occurs through Brussels airport, and - baffling -
the government does not perform screening or quarantine measures nor
informs about it. On this website, you can see the planned arrivals:
https://www.brusselsairport.be/en/passengers

If one has the seasonal flu; please be responsible to not spread it at
FOSDEM and complicate matters further.
If one has had potential contact with people coming from one of the
affected regions 3 days before the event - even without any symptoms
or fever - please act responsibly and quarantine yourself; typically
after 3 days flu-like symptoms develop, after 8 days hospital
treatment becomes necessary due to breathing difficulty and other
problems - this is a deadly virus with a high mortality rate (still
uncertain how much exactly) and with a high strain on the health care
system (2-3 weeks in ICU with breathing machines are required for a
significant part of the infected people).

Dust or paint masks rated 'P3' can still be found at some hardware
stores in Belgium and offer adequate protection in combination with
goggles. All pharmacies in Belgium are sold out since yesterday. Lower
rated masks might protect others against your potential carrying of
disease as less droplets will be spread in the environment and could
be a good idea - if you manage to get hold of them. Don't forget that
masks are now mandatory when going outside in the regions in China who
were in a similar situation than us - Europeans - less than a month
ago.

Wash hands regularly, do not touch your nose or mouth, use
chlorine-warter 'javel' to clean potential virus locations (door
handles and such).

As the virus might be circulating undetected for over 10 days, and
transmission from one victim to 15 others isn't uncommon - after which
they become infectious quickly - it cannot be ruled out that the virus
might be circulating in Brussels in low numbers by the end of this
week (or even now).
The exponential growth of confirmed cases in China indicates what
could happen here - in a short timeframe.

HOWEVER; there have not been any confirmed cases in Belgium yet. And
from 1 case to 100 cases takes a while - after that,... well, we see
how it develops in China now. So FOSDEM might be over before things
get seriously in Belgium with respect to this virus.

Personally, I got the seasonal flue today, but I already decided the
risk wasn't worth it for me, and I will only give my presentation
about FreedomEV 2.0 (Tesla Hacking and free software on Electric
Vehicles) if I can do that remotely (probably not).
Ultimately it is everybody's own responsibility to decide what to do,
I kindly ask to properly inform yourself with respect to this matter.
And I sincerely hope that I am mostly wrong about my assessment.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)

Greetings,
Jasper

--
Jasper Nuyens
Managing Director, Linux Belgium
http://www.linuxbe.com
Phone: +32 (0)2 747 47 01
Fax: +32 (0)2 747 47 10
GSM: +32 (0)478 978967


On Wed, Jan 29, 2020 at 1:43 PM hostilius <hostilius at protonmail.ch> wrote:
>
> Hello,
>
> Fosdem brings together people from many places all over the world,
> which is awesome. But the timing of this year's Fosdem is unfortunate.
>
> I suggest to discuss the potential effect of the Coronavirus (2019nCov)
> on Fosdem, and potential measures.
>
> The new virus appears to be transmittable from person to person, even by
> people not showing any symptoms yet (this is different from the SARS
> 2002 virus).
>
> Based on today's reports from Hong Kong university, the virus might have
> an incubation period around 10 days. Currently 44000 people are
> estimated to be infected (not yet sick), and that number might double
> every 6 days.
>
> The city of Wuhan (11 million inhabitants) was put under lockdown on
> Jan 23. However, it is estimated that 5 million people were able to
> leave the city prior to the lockdown.
>
> I think this means, it's currently unknown how successful the quarantine
> effort is.
>
> Another developer conference by a large Telco, that was originally
> planned to take place mid February in Shenzen (more than 1000 km away
> from Wuhan), was already canceled.
>
> How likely is it that the virus might already be spreading
> internationally, with the majority of cases still being unnoticed,
> because of the long incubation period?
>
> How likely is it that the virus reaches the Fosdem venue and that many
> attendees will catch it, thereby putting themselves at risk,
> and further contributing to a quick international distribution?
>
> Kind Regards,
> a regular Fosdem visitor.
>
>
>
> Sent with ProtonMail Secure Email.
>
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