[FOSDEM] Coronavirus

[Daniel Pocock]

On 31/01/2020 00:12, Jasper Nuyens wrote:

> 
> I agree with your analysis, except from your remark about the
> mortality rate. There is no indication (except from hearsay) that this
> is anything less than the 9.5% of SARS; on the contrary.
> The exact mortality rate is in this stage unclear, but it seems to be
> more than 11%: 11% of the early 99 patients died, but only 31% is - as
> of today - discharged; 58% still remain in the hospital, so the
> casualties amongst this group could still increase the percentage.
> These numbers also depends on access to decently equipped Intensive
> Care Units (ICU) - which is very problematic with the number of

That is an excellent point and it came up indirectly in the WHO press
conference

They explained that the main reason for a state of emergency is not
because of China (who can build new hospitals in just 10 days) but
because of their fear that other countries with less resources (less
ICUs) will struggle.

WHO also commented that China has committed to send resources to those
countries.  I feel that is very commendable from the Chinese but it will
also be important to observe how well it works in practice, for example,
in countries where the Chinese experts don't speak local languages or
where local health practitioners have never worked with China before.

To compare it to the larger free software organizations, people might
die while bureaucrats have bun fights.

> already confirmed cases: now at 8163 in China, with an additional
> 12167 identified probable cases; more than 20.000 people. Add to that
> that the number of cases have doubled every 2 days till today - and
> that they can remain undetected for 10 days. A grim outlook.
> https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia

The incubation period, where infected people display no symptoms, is
particularly scary for me too

A report today said that the rigorous screening at airports can only
detect 33% of people with infection.  The other 66% pass that screening
and share the infection later.

An Australian airline has just confirmed transmission between passengers
on a domestic flight and they are now trying to track down the other 170
passengers for quarantine.


> About 75% of these people will get a double pneumonia and more than
> 10% will need mechanical ventilation for survival. Because of these
> enormous amount of infected people, the organisational constraints can
> make the mortality go up instead of down, some doctors believe it
> might become 30%. But it's hard to tell at this stage, there are also
> reasons why the mortality can go down (see next).
> The most comprehensive clinical study to date can be found here (The
> Lancet publishes updated versions regularly):
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
> 
> On a positive note, China is experimenting with a lot of different
> approved drugs which might be affective against this disease - this
> has the potential to reduce the mortality rate and is a sparkle of
> hope.
> Hopefully, we get lucky and will this lead to an optimised way to deal
> with infected people with a lesser need of ICU dependency.
> https://innophore.com/2019-ncov/

As the WHO emphasized tonight, the Chinese are taking it very seriously

Even if they don't find the solution in China, the fact that Chinese
cabinet ministers are on the ground in Wuhen (according to the WHO)
shows they are committed to the issue.

If this happened in the US, do you think the US president would visit
ground zero or would he seek refuge at one of his golf courses?  He
might toss a coin to decide whether to blame Iran or Mexico for the problem.

> What would the people in Wuhan say if asked if there should have been
> quick and more drastic countermeasures? I believe we are getting in
> that situation now (but maybe it will take another week or even two to
> get into that situation).
> 
> With respect to FOSDEM, we all know how crowded it can be. I do
> believe the individual risk of infection this weekend is still very
> low. But there needs to be only one person who picked it up, passing
> through Brussels Airport or from another international hub.
> 
> Personally, I just prefer to be too cautious instead of otherwise,

To be completely transparent, there are other factors in my life right
now that might prevent me attending FOSDEM.  Coronavirus is an uncertain
risk that I am evaluating daily but the other factors are also evolving
on a daily basis.

I regard the WHO advice as useful but also political.  Watching the
press conference, I felt there was a bit of politics there.  Their
support for China was constructive.

I also felt some bias: they suggest trade should not stop without facts.

There is a niggling feeling I have: should that be inverted, should
trade /not/ continue until we have facts?

FOSDEM organizers have the last word of course.

FOSDEM organizers could also take measures to reduce crowding, for
example, cancelling all the booths and putting people on the external
doors to control crowd levels in the buildings.  Moving main track and
keynote speakers out of the Novotel and spreading them around different
hotels could also be a good N+1 strategy.

Regards,

Daniel